Sunday 14th December 2025
Thematic investing for a fractured world: Where advisers should focus in 2026
As geopolitical, demographic and technological shifts converge, understanding these four macro themes helps advisers build portfolios that are positioned not just for returns, but for relevance.
At Atchison, our thematic framework is built around four long-duration forces: security, artificial intelligence and innovation, energy and infrastructure, and longevity. Each represents a structural driver reshaping economic outcomes, influenced by demographic change, geopolitical shifts and rapid technological advancement. These themes are forward-looking opportunities to complement diversified portfolios, as outlined below:
Theme one: Security
| Sub-theme | Definition | Examples |
| Cyber security | Technologies securing networks, data and digital infrastructure against rising cyber threats. | Zero-trust security, encryption, secure cloud, threat detection. |
| Defence | Military technologies enhancing deterrence, situational awareness and autonomous capability. | Drones, autonomous vehicles, avionics, defence software. |
| Space | Orbital systems enabling global connectivity, surveillance and secure communication. | Satellites, launch services, space-based sensors. |
| Critical infrastructure and resource security | Systems that protect power, water, transport and essential resources from disruption. | Grid / transport security, water systems, critical minerals. |
Theme two: Artificial Intelligence and Innovation
| Sub-theme | Definition | Examples |
| Hardware and software | AI training, inference and high-performance compute driving AI and automation. | Graphics processing units (GPUs), neural processing units (NPUs), tensor processing units (TPUs), high-bandwidth (HBM) memory, data centres, generative AI. |
| Robotics | Autonomous systems improving productivity, efficiency, and safety across industries. | Warehouse robots, autonomous mobility, nanorobotics. |
| Interfaces and simulation | Technologies enhancing interaction and enabling digital-physical integration. | Augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR), voice AI, digital twins, brain computer interface |
| Innovation | Breakthrough transformative technologies beyond commercial applications. | Quantum, Fusion, Metaverse, Crypto, Frontier regions/tech |
Theme three: Energy and Infrastructure
| Sub-theme | Definition | Examples |
| Core energy | Conventional core energy systems supporting reliability and affordability. | Oil, Coal, LNG |
| Clean energy | Low-carbon energy sources forming the backbone of global decarbonisation. | Solar, wind, nuclear, small modular reactors (SMRs). |
| Energy storage | Technologies enabling reliable integration of variable renewables and grid stability. | Batteries, long-duration storage, thermal storage. |
| Infrastructure | Infrastructure upgrades, electrification, renewable integration and system resilience. | High-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines, smart grids, digital grid management. |
Theme four: Longevity
| Sub-Theme | Definition | Examples |
| Financial longevity | Financial solutions supporting multi-decade wealth sustainability and later-life security. | Life insurers, annuity providers, dividend growers, platforms. |
| Human optimisation | Extend healthy lifespan through prevention and performance enhancement. | Wearables, genome testing, nutrition, bioprinting. |
| Planetary longevity | Long-term viability of human societies and ecological stability. | Water purification, sustainable agriculture, biodiversity solutions. |
| Independent living | Safe, autonomous living across longer lifespans. | Senior housing REITs, smart-home tech, mobility aids. |
Security is evolving into a multi-dimensional investment theme as geopolitical tension, digital dependence and critical-infrastructure fragility converge. The expansion of autonomous systems underscores this shift. Morgan Stanley forecasts humanoid robots could form a US$4.7 trillion ($7.1 trillion) market by 2050, signalling a profound transformation in how nations and industries project capability and safeguard operations (Robeco, 2024). Security therefore reaches far beyond defence budgets or cyber hygiene. It now intersects directly with automation, resource protection and the resilience of essential systems, shaping long-term portfolio construction in ways that are only starting to be priced.
Artificial Intelligence and Innovation continue to amplify this structural change. The World Economic Forum estimates that global GDP could be 14 per cent higher by 2030, representing an additional US$15.7 trillion ($23.8 trillion) generated through AI adoption. That level of economic uplift reshapes everything from business models to labour allocation. It also accelerates demand for the enabling technologies described earlier: high-performance compute, advanced semiconductors, robotics, simulation tools and next-generation interfaces. Innovation is no longer a linear process. It is a compounding ecosystem, reinforcing itself through scale and productivity. As AI becomes embedded across industries, it shifts from a growth catalyst into a foundational determinant of competitive advantage and national economic strategy.
Another core theme, energy and infrastructure, sits at the heart of this transition, providing the physical backbone that allows technological systems and demographic shifts to function. The IMF’s Infrastructure Horizons report notes that global renewable capacity is expected to grow by 2.7 times between 2024 and 2030, a scale required to meet rising energy consumption and the electricity demands of AI-driven industries. Longevity, another core theme, magnifies these pressures. United Nations projections show the global population aged 65 and over reaching 1.6 billion by 2050, with one in six people above that age. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) analysis indicates that in Europe and North America this will rise to one in four, and in countries such as Japan, South Korea and Italy it could exceed one in three. These demographic trends shape financial longevity needs, human optimisation trends, social infrastructure requirements and long-term consumption patterns.
The four themes do not operate in isolation; they interact, reinforce and accelerate one another as economies adapt to ageing populations, rising energy intensity, technological acceleration and heightened security needs. For advisers, recognising this interplay is essential. It highlights where structural investment momentum is building and where diversified portfolios can most effectively capture resilient, compounding growth across the next three, five and ten years.
Sources:
- Robeco, 2024. Realising AI’s Transformative Potential: The Next Phase of Acceleration. Robeco.
- World Economic Forum, 2024. Global AI Economic Impact Assessments. World Economic Forum.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2024. Infrastructure Horizons. IMF.
- United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2024. World Population Prospects 2024, sourced from: https://population.un.org/wpp/
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2023. Health at a Glance 2023, sourced from: https://www.oecd.org/health/health-at-a-glance
- World Bank, 2024. The World Bank in Africa: Overview, sourced from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/overview
Mishan is a columnist for The Inside Adviser and an expert on asset allocation and fund research.
