Daily Market Update: 12 March 2026

Australian market rally led by miners and banks

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rose 50.9 points to close at 8743.50 as investors rotated into heavyweight mining and banking stocks despite growing expectations of a near-term interest rate rise. Markets sharply repriced the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after hawkish comments from deputy governor Andrew Hauser, pushing the Australian dollar higher and bond yields up. Money markets are now pricing roughly a 70 per cent chance of a rate increase at the central bank’s March 17 meeting, with economists at National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB) and Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) bringing forward their forecasts for the next tightening move.

Resources and banks support the index

Gains in the materials sector underpinned the market as iron ore climbed above US$104 a tonne. BHP Group Limited (ASX: BHP) rose to $51.96, Fortescue Limited (ASX: FMG) advanced to $19.98 and Champion Iron Limited (ASX: CIA) jumped to $4.94. Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX: LYC) surged after extending a long-term supply agreement with Japan Australia Rare Earths to 2038, while gold producers rallied as bullion moved above US$5200 an ounce, lifting Ora Banda Mining Limited (ASX: OBM) and Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX: NST). Banking stocks also supported the index with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB) and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ASX: ANZ) all gaining as higher interest rates are expected to bolster net interest margins. Among other movers, DroneShield Limited (ASX: DRO) edged higher after announcing plans to manufacture counter-drone technology in the European Union, GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) declined after reporting net fund outflows for February, and Macquarie Technology Group Limited (ASX: MAQ) surged after securing a $200 million hybrid investment from the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation.

Global markets pressured by oil and geopolitical tensions

Global markets were mixed as rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP: .INX) edged lower, the NASDAQ Composite Index (INDEXNASDAQ: .IXIC) slipped slightly and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX: .DJI) declined as conflict in the Persian Gulf pushed energy prices higher and fuelled inflation concerns. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed toward US$87 per barrel despite the International Energy Agency approving a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield reaching about 4.2 per cent, while February inflation data matched expectations at 2.4 per cent annually. Technology stocks found some support after Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) rallied on strong earnings and improved guidance, while investors also turned toward clean energy funds as an alternative amid ongoing volatility in fossil fuel markets.